Morgan Stanley resets SanDisk stock forecast ahead of earnings

SanDisk has been one of the most extraordinary stock stories of 2026. Up nearly 295% year to date, the memory chip company has ridden a NAND pricing supercycle into territory that would have seemed impossible a year ago.

Now Morgan Stanley has reset its forecast on SanDisk in a way that says the firm believes the story has further to run, even from here. The new price target is not a modest nudge. It is a statement.

Morgan Stanley raises SanDisk price target

Analyst Joseph Moore raised his price target on SanDisk to $1,100 from $690 on April 27, maintaining an overweight rating. SanDisk was trading at $989.90 at the April 24 close, making the new target an 11% premium to the recent market price.

Moore's valuation uses 23x through-cycle earnings per share, which he raised to $48 from $30 as his forward estimates moved dramatically higher.

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With SanDisk's 2027 EPS now modeled at $149.68, Moore said he is "comfortable moving the through-cycle earnings up to $48."

The revision to estimates is just as striking. Morgan Stanley now models SanDisk earning $127.92 per share in calendar 2026. That is 65% above Wall Street consensus of $77.55. For 2027, Morgan Stanley's $149.68 estimate sits 42% above the Street's $105.03.

NAND pricing is the engine behind SanDisk's bull case

The core thesis for SanDisk's bull case is NAND pricing momentum. Third-party forecasts project overall NAND average selling prices to rise roughly 90% in Q1 2026 and 70-75% in Q2 2026. SanDisk is showing relative outperformance in client SSDs versus peers, Moore noted.

That surge is being driven by a structural mismatch between AI-related demand and constrained supply. Hyperscalers are pulling enormous volumes of NAND flash into enterprise SSDs for training, inference, and vector storage. Industry analysts project 2026 NAND bit demand growth of 20-22% against bit supply growth of just 15-17%, according to 24/7 Wall St. The shortage is widening, even as capital spending picks up.

Moore captured the key question investors face directly. "NAND near-term strength is discounted," he wrote. "The debate at this point is durability, and we expect pricing to remain strong as long as we remain at maximum AI investment." New capacity is not expected online until after 2027, which keeps supply elasticity limited in the near term, according to TradingKey.

SanDisk's recent results set a very high bar

The Morgan Stanley target raise comes ahead of SanDisk's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings on April 30. SanDisk's fiscal Q2 results were exceptional. The company reported non-GAAP EPS of $6.20, well above the $3.54 consensus. Revenue of $3.03 billion topped the $2.67 billion Wall Street estimate, according to SanDisk's Q2 press release.

SanDisk's data center segment was the standout. Data center revenue rose 64% sequentially and 76% year over year to $440 million. That segment now represents roughly 15% of total revenue, up from just 1% a year ago, the Q2 press release confirmed.

SanDisk guided Q3 revenue to $4.40 billion to $4.80 billion, with non-GAAP EPS of $12.00 to $14.00. Morgan Stanley sits above that guide. The firm models Q3 revenue of $4.742 billion and EPS of $14.72, both above Street consensus.

Key figures from Morgan Stanley's SanDisk forecast reset:

• New price target: $1,100, raised from $690, overweight rating maintained, analyst Joseph Moore
• SanDisk stock price at April 24 close: $989.90
• SanDisk YTD performance as of late April: Up approximately 295%, according to 24/7 Wall St
• Morgan Stanley CY2026 EPS estimate: $127.92, versus consensus of $77.55, 65% above Street
• Morgan Stanley CY2027 EPS estimate: $149.68, versus consensus of $105.03, 42% above Street
• Morgan Stanley CY2026 revenue estimate: $32.877 billion, versus consensus of $23.374 billion, 42% above Street
• NAND ASP forecast: Up 90% in Q1 2026, 70-75% in Q2 2026, according to TrendForce data cited by Morgan Stanley
• SanDisk Q2 2026 EPS: $6.20, versus consensus of $3.54, according to SanDisk's Q2 press release
• SanDisk Q2 datacenter revenue: $440 million, up 64% sequentially and 76% year over year, SanDisk's Q2 press release confirmed
• SanDisk Q3 guidance: revenue $4.40 billion to $4.80 billion, EPS $12.00 to $14.00, Q2 press release confirmed
• Morgan Stanley bull case: $1,500, based on 25x through-cycle EPS of $60

How long will SanDisk's favorable pricing environment last?

Near-term strength in SanDisk's numbers is well understood by the market. The harder question is how long the favorable pricing environment lasts. That answer depends largely on how committed hyperscalers remain to AI infrastructure spending.

Moore sees long-term agreements as a key proof point. SanDisk and other memory companies have discussed multi-year hyperscaler deals involving cash prepayments. Moore expects those prepayments to show up on SanDisk's balance sheet over the course of 2026 as negotiations are finalized. Customers generally prefer their memory suppliers not to discuss deals before completion, making LTA updates a sensitive topic on any earnings call.

SanDisk is also locking in supply chain relationships. The company extended its joint venture with Kioxia at the Yokkaichi plant in Japan through 2034, committing approximately $1.165 billion paid in installments, according to SanDisk investor relations.

SanDisk is also investing $1 billion in Nanya Technology, a move Moore flagged as a potential influence on wafer mix and ASP dynamics.

What SanDisk investors should watch on April 30

Morgan Stanley sees the April 30 report as a high-bar event. "A high bar for this week's earnings makes the T+1 reaction difficult to predict," Moore wrote. "But [we] still see peak cycle FCF as underappreciated."

Three metrics will matter most for SanDisk.

• First, whether revenue lands inside or above the $4.4 billion to $4.8 billion guidance range
• Second, whether gross margin expands toward the 78% range Morgan Stanley models
• Third, what management says about hyperscaler order visibility and LTA progress

SanDisk's stock is now driven more by the duration of the NAND upcycle than by any single quarter's headline numbers. Guidance language will move the stock more than the beat itself, according to 24/7 Wall St.

For investors in SanDisk, Morgan Stanley's message is clear. The cycle has more room to run. Earnings power is being underestimated by consensus. And free cash flow from multi-year LTAs expected later in 2026 is a proof point the market has not yet priced in.

Related: Bank of America resets Sandisk stock price for the rest of 2026