Rosenblatt resets Palantir stock price target after earnings

Palantir just posted one of the strongest quarters in its history as a public company. Wall Street's reaction was split. The stock fell. And one analyst said he had never seen anything quite like it at this scale.

That analyst was Rosenblatt Securities' John McPeake. And he responded by raising his price target.

Rosenblatt raises Palantir stock price target

McPeake raised his price target on Palantir to $225 from $200 on May 5, maintaining a buy rating, according to TipRanks. The move followed Palantir's Q1 2026 earnings report, which McPeake described as a "significant beat" to estimates.

McPeake also raised his estimates following the results. The revised target of $225 places Rosenblatt among the more bullish voices on the Street, sitting above the current median analyst price target of $200, according to Quiver Quantitative.

What McPeake said about Palantir's quarter

McPeake did not frame this as a routine earnings beat. "We think the company's integration, orchestration, and Ontology are the key to unlocking AI value in the enterprise," he said, according to Benzinga.

He went further in characterizing the growth profile. McPeake said he has never seen a company with Palantir's level of organic acceleration in revenue and earnings growth at this scale in the tech sector, Benzinga confirmed.

Those are significant statements from a sell-side analyst. They frame Palantir not as a company that had a good quarter, but as one doing something structurally different from its peers in enterprise software.

Why the ontology argument matters

Rosenblatt's thesis is built around Palantir's ontology layer, which McPeake views as the company's most defensible competitive advantage. In practical terms, the ontology is the data foundation that links structured and unstructured enterprise information into a single operational model, according to 24/7 Wall St.

The argument is that most AI companies can generate enthusiasm, but fewer can show a practical path to enterprise adoption.

Rosenblatt's position is that Palantir's integration and orchestration capabilities are what allow customers to move from isolated AI pilots to AI deployed at scale across real business operations. That stickiness, if it holds, is what justifies both the growth rate and the premium valuation.

The earnings numbers behind Rosenblatt's Palantir upgrade

Palantir's Q1 2026 revenue came in at $1.633 billion, up 85% year over year. Adjusted operating income grew 152% in the quarter. Palantir raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $7.650 billion to $7.662 billion, from a prior range of $7.182 billion to $7.198 billion.

The bottom of the new range sat above the Street's prior high estimate of $7.240 billion, according to Investing.com.

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Q2 guidance of $1.797 billion to $1.801 billion also came in well above the Street estimate of $1.679 billion, according to Benzinga. Management's 2026 operating income guidance implies growth of approximately 97% for the full year.

Despite all of that, Palantir shares fell 6.7% to $136.12 on May 5, Benzinga noted. The move reflects how high expectations had already been set and how sensitive a premium-valued stock can be to any read-through that falls short of the most optimistic scenarios.

Key figures from Rosenblatt's Palantir upgrade:

• Rosenblatt price target: $225, raised from $200, buy rating maintained, analyst John McPeake, May 5, according to TipRanks
• Q1 2026 revenue: $1.633 billion, up 85% year over year; adjusted operating income up 152%, according to Investing.com
• FY2026 revenue guidance: Raised to $7.650B-$7.662B from $7.182B-$7.198B, above Street high of $7.240B, Investing.com confirmed
• Q2 2026 revenue guidance: $1.797B-$1.801B versus Street estimate of $1.679B, according to Benzinga
• Street median price target on Palantir: $200, versus Rosenblatt's $225 and Wedbush's $230, according to Quiver Quantitative
• DA Davidson price target: Lowered to $165 from $180, neutral rating maintained, Benzinga noted
• Palantir stock on May 5: Fell 6.7% to $136.12 despite the earnings beat, according to Benzinga

Where the Street stands on Palantir, and what divides it

Rosenblatt's $225 target is one of the more aggressive calls on the Street, but not the most aggressive. Wedbush set a target of $230 on May 5 as well. On the other side, RBC Capital maintained a target of $90 and DA Davidson actually lowered its target from $180 to $165, keeping a neutral rating, according to Quiver Quantitative.

That spread tells you something important about the Palantir debate. The bull case rests on the ontology thesis, sustained government and commercial momentum, and the argument that the Rule of 40 score of 145% represents a durable structural advantage.

The bear case centers on a valuation that demands continued flawless execution and the risk that AI spending cycles are more cyclical than they currently appear.

For investors watching from the sidelines, Rosenblatt's message is that the Q1 print was not a one-off, that the growth is accelerating rather than peaking, and that the ontology layer gives Palantir something competitors are not close to replicating.

Whether $225 is the right number depends almost entirely on whether that last point holds up over the next several quarters.

Related: Palantir resets annual forecast on strong U.S. government demand