Bank of America revamps gold stock price target for 2026

Gold has had a wild few weeks, but Bank of America is not flinching. The bank just reset its 12-month gold price target to $6,000 per ounce, even as the metal navigates some of the most turbulent policy headlines of the year.

Bank of America analysts cited policy uncertainty around Federal Reserve leadership, persistent fiscal deficits and structurally low investor allocations as the three pillars behind the call. Gold futures were trading around $5,208 per ounce at the time of the forecast.

For investors who sold the dip after the Kevin Warsh nomination spooked markets, Bank of America's message is pointed. The bank believes the selloff was overdone and that the bigger move for gold in 2026 is still ahead.

What Bank of America is saying about gold right now

The February 25 note addresses the Warsh factor directly. On January 30, Trump announced on Truth Social he was nominating Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair. The move sent gold futures down 6.4% on the day of the announcement, with prices briefly dropping to $4,893 per ounce. Warsh served as a Fed governor from February 2006 to March 2011 and built a reputation as a hawk, consistently favoring higher rates to fight inflation during that tenure.

But BofA analysts say the bearish read on Warsh is overstated. In recent weeks he has sounded more dovish, and the bank points out that the Fed's bloated balance sheet complicates any hawkish pivot regardless of who leads it. The analysts wrote that if quantitative tightening reduces bank reserves and spills into money markets, without fiscal consolidation, investors will likely increase their exposure to gold

Related: JPMorgan revamps long-term gold price target

FOMC minutes published February 18 showed the Fed held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% at its January meeting, with members split on the path forward. Gold traditionally rallies during periods of policy uncertainty, inflation fears and currency weakness, and right now all three forces are present.

Key reasons BofA sees gold reaching $6,000 within 12 months

• Fed leadership uncertainty under incoming chair Kevin Warsh adds a new layer of policy risk that historically favors gold.
• U.S. fiscal deficits, rising debt and inflation still running near 3% are all structural tailwinds for gold.
• Gold ETF inflows hit an all-time high in September 2025, with $14 billion flowing in, an 880% surge
• Mine supply is falling: BofA's Michael Widmer forecasts the 13 major North American gold miners will produce 2% less output in 2026 versus 2025
• Investors remain structurally underweight gold, with high-net-worth individuals holding just 0.5% of assets in the metal

Widmer: gold is overbought but still underinvested

Bank of America's Head of Metals Research Michael Widmer has been making a complementary case alongside the macro call. Despite gold's historic run, Widmer has argued that investor allocations remain far too low for the metal to be considered overbought on a structural basis. In his view, the rally has been a price story, not yet a positioning story.

Widmer points to the supply side as an underappreciated driver. His analysis suggests most market forecasts for gold mine output are too optimistic, with all-in sustaining costs now approaching $1,600 per ounce and quietly squeezing margins for smaller producers.

On the demand side, his argument is equally straightforward. De-dollarization, central bank buying, inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions are not fading. In his framework, bull markets end when fundamentals shift, and none of those fundamentals have shifted yet.

Where Wall Street stands on gold right now

Bank of America's $6,000 call lands in a crowded bull camp. Most major banks have moved their targets sharply higher in recent weeks, though a few remain more cautious.

JPMorgan raised its year-end 2026 target to $6,300 per ounce, projecting central bank purchases of around 800 tonnes this year and citing an ongoing, unexhausted trend of reserve diversification.

UBS lifted its target to $6,200 per ounce, up from $5,000, while laying out an upside scenario of $7,200 if geopolitical risks escalate. 

Wells Fargo recently raised its year-end range to $6,100 to $6,300 and told clients to buy the dip.

Not everyone is in lockstep. HSBC's James Steel has warned that easing trade tensions or any fiscal consolidation could relieve some of gold's risk premium and trigger a sharp pullback, noting the bank sees a wide 2026 trading range of $3,950 to $5,050.

Commerzbank raised its year-end target to $4,900 per ounce in January, well below the most bullish calls on the street. UBS itself acknowledges the trade has become more two-sided, flagging a firmer dollar and a potentially more hawkish Fed as risks heading deeper into 2026.

Where the major banks stand on gold in 2026

• JPMorgan: $6,300 year-end target; upside scenario at $8,000 to $8,500
• Wells Fargo: $6,100 to $6,300 year-end range
• UBS: $6,200 base case; upside at $7,200; downside at $4,600
• Bank of America: $6,000 within 12 months
• Deutsche Bank / Societe Generale: $6,000 by year-end
• Goldman Sachs: $5,400 year-end target
• HSBC / Commerzbank: mid-to-high $4,000s average; cautious on near-term risks

Silver could rebound above $100 but faces near-term risks

Bank of America also weighed in on silver in the February 25 note. The bank sees silver potentially rebounding above $100 per ounce, though it flagged more near-term risks for the white metal compared to gold.

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• J.P. Morgan revises gold price target for 2026

The silver market has now recorded five consecutive years of structural deficit, with the cumulative shortfall since 2021 exceeding 820 million ounces, roughly equal to an entire year of global mining output. Industrial demand from solar panels, electric vehicles and 5G electronics continues to compound the supply pressure.

If the gold-to-silver ratio compresses toward its 2011 low of 32:1, silver would trade above $187 per ounce at a $6,000 gold price. BofA is not explicitly targeting that level, but it signals how much ground silver would need to cover to catch up with gold's already historic run.

What could still go wrong for gold bulls

Bank of America is not ignoring the downside. The February 25 report points to a more dovish-than-expected Warsh as a risk that could unsettle markets if it feeds inflation concerns, and flags that any surprise improvement in U.S. economic data could give the Fed reason to hold rates higher for longer, which would weigh on gold.

A sharp rebound in the U.S. dollar remains the most immediate technical threat. Fed officials have signaled in recent weeks there is little appetite to adjust policy given resilient labor market conditions. If that tone hardens, real yields could rise and pressure prices.

Even so, BofA's broader position is that the structural case for gold remains intact. The bank's analysts argue that central bank buying, fiscal deficits and investor underallocation are not trends that reverse quickly, and that any near-term pullback is more likely to attract buyers than trigger a sustained reversal.

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