Fresh China deal gives hope for whipsawed Boeing shares

A funny thing happened to Boeing's stock last week when an excited President Donald Trump revealed that Boeing had a deal to sell 200 new airplanes to China.

The stock went down on three of the next five days, only because investors were expecting an order for about 500 planes. Boeing fell as much as 11% by May 19, according to Wall Street Journal data.

Finally, on May 20, China's Ministry of Commerce confirmed the deal. And confirmed PresidentTrump's number: 200. There may be more orders ahead, Boeing has said.

And Boeing shares duly recovered, rising 3.3% on the day to $220.20.

The up-and-down year for Boeing shares

So, all is well with Boeing, right? Yes and no.

• Yes, in that China hadn't agreed to buy planes from Boeing for 10 years. And now, there's a deal for 200 planes.
• No, in that Boeing's 2026 stock performance has been maddening.

With the May 20 close, the shares are up just 2.3% for the year. The shares had been up 10.8% on May 13, the day before Trump's plane landed in Beijing.

On Jan. 27, the shares had hit a 52-week high of $254.35. It was the day when Boeing reported fourth-quarter 2025 results, which were strong, especially on backlog growth and operating and free cash flow, Invezz reported.

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But the report also included a charge involving cost overruns on its KC-46 tanker program (part of Boeing's big defense portfolio), and the share price stalled until mid-February. That was followed by a 22% decline until the end of March.

After that, the excitement over the potential size of the China order produced a 21% rally until May 14, when Trump said it was 200 planes, smaller than expected.

And, finally, the stock sold off again because Wall Street had bought the hype about the China deal that was mostly of its making and started to trim positions.

Boeing's tortured past makes appearance

Lastly, painful ghosts of the past resurfaced.

• Last week, a jury ordered Boeing to pay $49.5 million to the family of Samya Stumo, a victim in a 2019 Ethiopia crash of a 737 that killed 157. Stumo was a great niece of consumer advocate Ralph Nader, according to ABC News.
• On May 19, a National Transportation Safety Board preliminary report cited by the Seattle Times said there were signs of stress and cracks in the wing of a cargo plane that crashed in 2025 in Louisville, Ky., killing 15. The MD-11 was built by McDonnell-Douglas, which later merged into Boeing.

Boeing sees fitful recovery

The 737 crashes and a 2024 door-blowout on an Alaska Airlines flight, as the Blue Mountain Eagle reported, were titanic problems. The incidents led to planes being grounded and multiple management shakeups before Kelly Ortberg became CEO in late 2024.

The memories may be short-lived for investors if Boeing's Ortberg-led recovery continues and the global economy doesn't fall apart. High jet-fuel costs and spot shortages for airlines operating outside North America may derail sales for Boeing and rival Airbus.

Boeing's commercial plane backlog is 6,800 before the China deal — good for at least 10 years of work ahead for the company.

The company's order books for its commercial plane business and government business are growing. (Boeing was the prime contractor on the rocket used to launch the Artemis II crew on its April mission to the moon.)

Reported earnings may hit 47 cents a share for 2026, according to a Yahoo Finance estimate. But projections are for earnings to hit $5.44 in 2027. Revenue might reach $112.3 billion in 2027, up from an estimated $97.7 billion in 2026.

Of 16 stock analysts who follow Boeing and offer a rating on the stock, 15 rate the stock at least a buy, with just one rating it a hold, StockAnalysis.com notes.

The average price target is $270.

A year ago, when there were 20 ratings, there was one sell and one hold.

Related: China deal paradox: Why Boeing tripped on big new plane order